Quantifying environmental and resource impacts of the future UK hydrogen-fuelled vehicle fleet
Publication Date
July 27, 2026
Creator
Duke, Cheryl
University of Nottingham
Abstract
The demand for hydrogen vehicles is increasing as part of the drive to decarbonise transportation, particularly in sectors where battery electric vehicles (BEVs) face limitations. Since hydrogen-powered vehicles are zero-emission at the tailpipe, the sustainability of these technologies depends on upstream supply chain impacts, including critical material needs, manufacturing emissions, and end-of-life recovery. To deploy these technologies sustainably, it is essential to understand both the current and future environmental impacts of the vehicles and their fuel sources. This thesis provides a system-level assessment of hydrogen mobility across three scales: the production of proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysers, vehicle-level comparisons of hydrogen and electric powertrains, and fleet-level deployment scenarios in the UK through 2050
This thesis evaluates the lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, cost and material demands of hydrogen technologies. On the production side, we focus on proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysers for renewable, green hydrogen. While the vehicle and fleet analysis consider fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), fuel cell range extended vehicles (FCREx) and hydrogen internal combustion engines (H2-ICEV).
Our results reveal a critical material bottleneck in the production of green hydrogen. Even with rapid reductions in iridium catalyst loading and 95% closed-loop recycling, cumulative demand for iridium is projected to reach 526–1,100 tonnes by 2050 - far exceeding current global supply capacity (7 t yr−1). In terms of GHG emissions, manufacturing waste emerges as a dominant source in PEM systems, contributing up to 56 tCO2eq/MWe in 2022. Without recycling, emissions increase by 14-fold, underscoring the essential role of circular economy strategies. At the vehicle level, BEVs consistently demonstrate the lowest lifecycle emissions and cost, with projected costs of e0.26–0.28 per mile by 2050, compared to e0.39–0.45 for hydrogen vehicles. However, if deployed today, hybridised hydrogen vehicles such as FCREx would be cost-competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles due to reduced hydrogen consumption. In addition, sensitivity analysis indicates that hydrogen FCEVs can be more economical than BEVs without access to home charging due to the high cost of public electricity. Fleet-scale modelling confirms these trends. The Major H2 scenario (30% hydrogen fleet market in 2050) has a 6% increase in cumulative GHG emissions and lifecycle costs compared to the BEV-dominant Base scenario, driven by higher hydrogen production and vehicle component costs. We find that early deployment of H2-ICE vehicles introduces efficiency penalties, with the Transitionary scenario (7% hydrogen fleet in 2050) showing the highest energy demand despite lower hydrogen uptake. Finally, improvements in the manufacturing phase such as a 42–45% reduction in fuel cell and tank production costs translate
to just a 0.5% reduction in total cumulative cost, highlighting the dominance of upstream fuel production in shaping hydrogen vehicle economics.
This thesis advances current understanding by demonstrating that hydrogen’s role in transport decarbonisation relies not just on technological readiness but also on material supply chains, low-carbon production methods, and user behaviour. It highlights that circular economy approaches, though vital, need to be complemented with alternative technologies and better material efficiency to address systemic challenges.
Item Type
ethesis
Thesis Type
PhD
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Subjects (LC)
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