Essays on applied macroeconometrics and on energy in firm productivity
Publication Date
December 14, 2023
Creator
Abstract
Despite covering a wider array of topics, the thesis is bound together by its emphasis on data-driven work, using advanced and novel approaches to de- scribing complex economic relationships. The novelties introduced in this work range from visual simplifications of inter-temporal dynamics (chapter 1), new econometric techniques (chapter 2), the identification of largely unaddressed heterogeneities of economic mechanisms in relation to market signals (chapter 3) as well as the elaboration on innate differences in these market fundamentals subject to firm-level characteristics (chapter 4). What unites all four stand-alone chapters is a focus on econometrically-driven empirical analyses addressing the issues of model specification, causality and endogeneity, as well as cross-sectional spillovers along multiple lines.
In what remains, this section offers a brief description of each of the four chapters. As some of the chapters are co-authored, the following paragraphs also describe the author’s contributions to the separate works.
Chapter 1 offers a straightforward and descriptive contribution to the debate on fiscal discipline made popular by the seminal work of Reinhart and Rogoff (2010)1 after policymakers have sought foundation and justification of a pol- icy known as austerity, following the sovereign debt crisis of 2010. The piece revisits the debate on whether or not higher debt levels impede growth rates. It contributes to the field by offering a synopsis of the recent literature and a time series perspective using a corrected data set, including a more recent and higher frequency source.
The chapter is co-authored with Paul Middleditch. It was published as Amann, J., & Middleditch, P. (2020). Revisiting Reinhart and Rogoff after the crisis: a time series perspective. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 44(2), 343-370. My contribution to this paper covers the literature survey, the visualisations and the drafting of the article. Paul’s support and insights were of great help leading up to and during the publication process.
Chapter 2 is a continuation of chapter 1. It critically assesses the empirical literature on the debt-threshold literature and introduces a Granger-causality testing framework to test for regime-dependent Granger-causality under cross- sectional dependence. The chapter provides simulation evidence illustrating the validity of the proposed approach under different scenarios and provides an empirical application of the debt-threshold hypothesis. Finally, it offers a vignette for the statistical package written in the R programming language to make the proposed approach more accessible to practitioners. All work on this chapter is my own.
Chapter 3 examines the effect of a change in fossil fuel subsidies on the manufacturing industry of an oil-rich Middle Eastern economy. Using a novel firm-level micro data set on Omani manufacturing enterprises, the piece shows that fossil fuel price increases lead to improved productivity, efficiency, and notable business upgrading. The findings in this paper indicate that subsidy reforms may not only be used to achieve environmental goals but may also drive upgrading and modernisation processes of firms and can ultimately improve economic performance.
This chapter is co-authored with Nicola Cantore, Massimiliano Calí, Valentin Todorov, and Charles Fang Chin, and was published as Amann, J., Cantore, N., Calí, M., Todorov, V., & Cheng, C. F. C. (2021). Switching it up: The effect of energy price reforms in Oman. World Development, 142, 105252. The respective contributions to the piece are as follows: N. Cantore and M. Calí provided critical inputs on various versions of the draft pertaining to the structure of the argument and robustness of the results. C.F.C Cheng worked with me on the construction of the database and provided valuable inputs about the Omani policy context and government initiatives. V. Todorov provided valuable insights regarding the survey of industrial firms and deflation of Omani production data. All remaining work including the data compilation, empirical work, drafting of the paper and revisions during the peer-review process were done by me.
Chapter 4 is a continuation of the theme of chapter 3. It is collaborative and ongoing work with the World Bank. The objective of this project is to (i) gather more cross-country evidence on the effect of policy change in the energy market; (ii) further explore heterogeneities in firm-level responses to energy price surges; (iii) investigate potential non-linear effects energy price variations have on firm performance. Parts of this chapter were prepared to contribute to the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program - Energy Subsidy Reform Facility’s flagship study.
This chapter is work in progress and a collaboration with Arti Grover and Dirk Heine from the World Bank, both of which provided valuable insights and comments during the various drafting stages of the document. All data work, the empirical analysis and the drafting of the chapter is my own work.
Item Type
ethesis
Thesis Type
PhD
Supervisors
Subjects (LC)
Associated Schools / Departments
School of Economics (UK)
eprints ID
72346
UoN Repository URI
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